I’ve advocated many times for an “evidence based” approach to management and business.  Too often I come across people who are getting acceptable results but when pressed to explain, they clearly don’t know why it’s working.  When they stop getting results, they don’t know what to change or do different.  That’s why I urge people to test your assumptions, take accurate measurements, keep score, notice what’s working–and what isn’t.   I believe it is crucial to avoid learning the wrong lessons, which happens when we draw conclusions about our successes and failures that are not based on the facts, but on our prejudices, assumptions, or a strong-minded person’s opinion.

We also have to guard against mistaking our measurements and our models with the whole picture.  There’s always more than what we can see or measure, and we need to avoid wearing self-made blinders.  It’s in the hidden spaces that wild and chaotic forces lurk.

Peter Bernstein was a remarkable example of intellectual humility and having a healthy respect for risk and uncertainty.  He warned us about trying to quantify the unquantifiable. I remember reading his bestseller Against the Gods in 1996 and gaining a deeper grasp of risk, hazard and management in the process.  We lost Peter last week at the age of 90, but he left behind some sound advice for the rest of us.

In my work with companies I urge them to set up measurement systems, or to better use the data and measurements they already have at hand.  These can be remarkably useful for making better decisions and keeping a lively inquiry that challenges lazy thinking or sloppy habits.

And I also see much value in heeding G.K. Chesterton’s advice:

“The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor that it is a reasonable  one.  The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite.  Life is not an illogicality, yet is is a trap for logicians.  It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.”